By Brian Gallagher for Hrvatski Vjesnik (Australia)
The 2nd October elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) are of great importance, in particular for the Croats of the that country as well as for neighbouring Croatia. Due to electoral loopholes, Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) may take a dominant position, which would see the reduction of Croats and affiliated others to a non-represented minority, destroying the power-sharing agreement between Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs set up by the Dayton Peace Accords in 1995. Such a situation could lead the Serb part of the country to declare independence, leading to the disintegration of BiH, causing instability on Croatia’s largest border. It is important for everyone to pay close attention to these elections.
The war in BiH was brought to end largely through US green-lighted Croatian force of arms in 1995, saving the country. Subsequently, the Dayton Peace Accords, signed in November of that year, established peace between Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. The country was split into two entities. 51% became the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and 49% became the Republika Srpska. There is also the small Brčko district, governed by neither entity.
There are a number of layers of government, such as a rotating presidency representing the constituent communities groups and the House of Peoples. Above all this is the Office of the High Representative (OHR). This is headed by an individual tasked with implementing the Dayton Peace Accords , currently the German Christian Schmidt. The OHR wields great power, it can change and establish laws and even dismiss elected politicians.
Whereas – due to ethnic cleansing – the Republika Srpska is largely Serb, the Federation is shared between the Bosniaks and Croats. All three peoples are regarded as ‘constituent’ or sovereign, the idea being that no group can dominate, but have to manage the country together. This power-sharing concept is critical to maintaining the peace. It is important to note, that in the former Yugoslavia, the Serbs thought they could dominate though numbers, hence the importance of the equality of the constituent peoples, to prevent such a situation arising in BiH.
The current problem arises from the Federation part of the country. Numerically, the Bosniaks outnumber the Croats in the Federation, forming 70% of the population compared to the Croats 22%. This should not be a problem, due to the constituent peoples concept. However, due to a loophole, Bosniaks can vote on the Croat list for the rotating presidency rather than the Bosniak one. What this means is that Bosniaks vote for their own representative, but due to numbers can also elect the Croat one, which they have done on a number of occasions. Zeljko Komsić, who identifies himself as a Croat, is the man whom Bosniaks have voted to take the Croat post. It cannot be said that that Komsić enjoys support from both communities. The vast majority of Croats do not vote for him, preferring the HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) candidates and he does not bother to campaign in Croat areas, which are mainly in Herzegovina. He is treated as a persona non grata in many Croat municipalities.
The Komsić situation has caused considerable bitterness amongst Croats and is certainly not in the spirit of the Dayton accords –the Croats would likely not have signed it if they knew was going to happen. For their part, the Serbs have been given an excuse for secessionism – they do not want to end up like the Croats and have given this as a reason for their intransigence.
However, the problem may now get significantly worse, endangering BiH itself. The election sees not only the elections of the Presidency but, indirectly, the House of Peoples. In 2002, the then OHR, Wolfgang Petritsch, changed the electoral rules that subsequently allowed the Bosniaks to gain a controlling interest in the Croatian caucus of the House of Peoples. However, this meant that the numerous Bosniaks were able to claim Croats seats as their own. For example, Gorazde canton, which is 94% Bosniak, elects one Bosniak, one Serb and one Croat. There are only 24 Croats there. A Bosniak can identify himself as a Croat, Bosniaks are permitted to vote for him and the Bosniaks effectively get an extra seat. This problem also effects the Serbs and other minorities in the Federation. The situation that approaches in the elections is that the Croats are likely to be excluded from government if they fail to elect two thirds of their club within the House of Peoples. Croats would effectively become a minority, with the Bosniaks taking full control of the Federation, ending the Dayton power-sharing agreement.
Worse still, the Bosniak nationalist party the SDA (Party of Democratic Action) would be dominant. Supporters of the current electoral system claim it is ‘civic’ and say that the rule of the majority is acceptable. They often point to people parties and individuals and claim they are moderate, such as the aforementioned Zeljko Komsić. What they fail to mention is that those parties and individuals are almost exclusively voted for by the Bosniaks. They also neglect to mention that the biggest party that supports the current electoral system is the Bosniak nationalist SDA, which controls the Federation. On top of that, both Iran and Turkey have come out in support of the current arrangements. These points are to be borne in mind whenever pro-Bosniaks profess support for the system and claiming to be against nationalism.
All across Europe there are arrangements to protect national groups, whether it’s the Flemish and Walloon regions in Belgium, the cantonal system in Switzerland or the Scottish parliament in the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland is a power-sharing system. No-one suggests that the Good Friday Agreement be effectively dismantled to let one group dominate, yet this is what Bosniaks and their supporters wish to see in BiH.
It's worth pointing that the BiH Constitutional Court in the Ljubić case ruled in favour of the Croats being properly represented, but this has not been implemented. There is also the European Court of Human Rights decision in the Sejdić-Finci case, which states that the minorities such as the Roma and Jews should be able to run for office without having to be associated with one of the constituent peoples. The ECHR decision can and should be implemented – there is no real conflict with the concept of constituent peoples.
In July, the OHR proposed introducing a 3% threshold to get elected to the House of Peoples. This potentially would mean Bosniak politicians would not be able to take Croat seats in places such as the Gorazde canton. There was an uproar by Bosniak politicians and their allies, and Schmidt backed down, even though he never officially made it public. It transpired that the US and UK supported Schmidt – significant as the UK historically has not done favours to the Croats. No doubt both countries understand the consequences of the destruction of the three constituent peoples power sharing concept.
It has been suggested that the Schmidt may yet impose his decision after the elections. However, this is very far from certain, given his retreat in July.
If the Croats are relegated to a minority in the elections, without any intervention by Schmidt, what then? The Federation would effectively become a Bosniak entity. It is then likely that BiH will slowly start to unravel. Croats will have to rethink their position – they are not likely to take orders from the SDA and their allies - and the Serbs will be emboldened to secede. The international lawyer Luka Mišetić has pointed out that for its part, Croatia may then be forced to suspend the Dayton peace agreement. The agreement was signed by three states – BiH, Croatia and Serbia. Croatia, as a guarantor of the Dayton Accords, can then suspend the agreement. This would not mean that things revert to 1995, but rather that things stay exactly as they are, which at least would prevent any legal discrimination against the Croats, as would be entirely possible under an SDA dominated government.
For neighbouring Croatia, it is a strategic issue. Zagreb does not want a disintegrating state on its borders, which would also affect the European Union. Further, the Croats in BiH, in particular in Herzegovina, provide a buffer zone both physically and politically against trouble from Bosniaks – who attempted to prevent the building of Croatia’s important Pelješac Bridge – and from Serbia.
The Dayton Peace Agreement is imperfect by any measure. However, the state of BiH provides a degree of security for all, both its citizens and its neighbours, for the very good reason that the constituent peoples concept prevents any one group dominating the whole country.
The idea of power-sharing is a moderate one. It should not be endangered in BiH, and it is to be hoped that Christian Schmidt recognises this and helps create a situation where it is a permanent feature of the country, allowing it to one day govern itself.
Brian Gallagher will be co-hosting a Twitter Spaces audio programme on the elections, check his Twitter account https://twitter.com/croatiabusiness for details.
Dnevnik.ba